LAGUNA, Philippines (20 June 2025) — Regional cooperation and country-focused policy solutions for global rice market challenges were at the center of discussion in the plenary session of IRRI’s 65th celebrations on “Navigating Uncertainty: Global Rice Markets amid Trade Policy Shifts and Changing Climate” on June 10, 2025. “Climate change and trade policy shocks are amplifying the volatility of global rice markets.”, was one of the key messages delivered by IRRI Senior Scientist Dr. Alisher Mirzabaev.
As a matter of fact, climate change is already affecting rice yields. “In some places there are small [production] gains, but losses are predominating already.”, explained Mirzabaev. This can be seen through the increasing weather variability at the country level. For example, in Tanzania, its level of rice self-sufficiency is fragile because of weather variability. Every two to three years there are droughts affecting Tanzania’s rice production systems jeopardizing food security.
According to IRRI’s Global Rice Model, rice production needs to increase by 15-20% or about 50-70 million more tons to meet global demands. “Clearly, it’s not about the yields anymore.”, Mirzabaev further explained that factors such as the environment, livelihoods, and social inclusion must also be taken into consideration. Moreover, trade policies such as the 2023 Indian export ban on non-basmati white rice and USA’s shifting tariffs are heightening uncertainties in the global rice markets.
“In Thailand, we try to upgrade our rice quality.”, shared Deputy Director General Dr. Chitnucha Buddhaboon of Thailand’s Rice Department. He discussed that the country supports the production of organic rice, good agricultural practice (GAP) rice, and implements high standards to be more competitive and meet market demands. Buddhaboon also stated that processing rice to develop other products for cosmetic or health use helps expand their…